Headlines about rising foreclosures can leave buyers, sellers and homeowners feeling uneasy. That is understandable. A headline that says foreclosure activity is increasing can sound like a warning that another housing crisis is around the corner.
But an increase alone does not tell the full story. The important question is: Increasing compared with what?
The foreclosure data discussed in the original version of this article showed an expected increase from historic lows, not a return to housing crash conditions. Activity remained below more typical levels. That distinction matters more than a dramatic headline.
To keep that information in perspective, the figures and expert observations below describe the period covered by the original article. They should not be read as a fresh foreclosure report or a promise about what comes next.
Start With the Comparison Behind the Headline
The original article challenged coverage that compared foreclosure activity with a period when foreclosures were at historic lows. That narrow comparison made the increase sound more alarming than the broader historical picture supported.
During the pandemic, the foreclosure moratorium and forbearance program helped millions of homeowners stay in their homes. Those protections gave homeowners an opportunity to get back on their feet during a challenging period.
After the moratorium ended, an increase in foreclosures was expected. The original article described that increase as a move away from unusually low activity, rather than evidence that the housing market was in trouble.
Those are different messages. Saying that foreclosures rose from historic lows is not the same as saying they reached historically high levels.
The starting point matters. Before accepting a headline's conclusion, look at the period it uses for comparison. If that period was unusual, the change needs more explanation than the headline may provide.
Look at the Longer Historical Record
The original article pointed to foreclosure data from ATTOM, a property data provider. Its historical comparison showed foreclosure activity consistently below the levels associated with the housing crash.
That was the central point of the original chart. Although foreclosure filings had increased in the report being discussed, they were still nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst.
The article also made a separate comparison with a more normal, pre-pandemic period. Foreclosure activity had not returned to those levels either.
Both comparisons are useful, but they answer different questions:
- Comparison with historic lows: Did foreclosure activity increase after an unusually quiet period?
- Comparison with normal pre-pandemic activity: Had foreclosures returned to more typical levels?
- Comparison with the housing crash: Did the increase resemble the foreclosure conditions associated with that crisis?
In the data presented, activity had increased from the lows, remained below the more normal benchmark and stayed well below housing crash levels. Focusing only on the first point left out important context.
What the Quoted Foreclosure Figure Actually Said
The original article cited Rick Sharga, identified as founder and CEO of the CJ Patrick Company, who said:
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels . . .”
That figure supported the article's argument that the increase did not amount to a foreclosure wave. Activity could rise from its unusually low starting point while remaining below its pre-pandemic benchmark.
The figure belongs to the reporting period in which it was quoted. It is not a permanent measure of foreclosure activity. Its lasting value here is the comparison it illustrates: the direction of a change and the level of activity are not the same thing.
When reviewing another foreclosure story, ask whether it gives you both. Does it tell you only that filings increased, or does it also explain how those filings compare with a normal period and with the housing crash?
Why Borrower Qualifications and Equity Mattered
The original article did not rely on foreclosure filings alone. It also explained why the borrower picture differed from the housing crash.
It attributed much of the lower foreclosure activity to buyers being more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. It also reported that delinquency rates remained low.
Homeowner equity was another part of the explanation. According to the article, most homeowners had enough equity to keep them from going into foreclosure.
These points supported the broader interpretation of the foreclosure numbers. The article was not simply saying, “Do not worry because filings are lower.” It was also pointing to borrower qualifications, mortgage payment performance and equity as reasons the situation was different.
Those observations described the broader market in the source material. They were not a guarantee about any individual homeowner's circumstances.
What the Delinquency Data Added
The original article also cited Molly Boesel, identified as principal economist at CoreLogic. In the report quoted, she described U.S. mortgage delinquency rates as healthy.
Her explanation included three observations: the overall delinquency rate was unchanged from a year earlier, the serious delinquency rate remained at a historic low, and borrowers in later stages of delinquency were finding alternatives to defaulting on their home loans.
Removing the calendar reference does not change the substance of those observations. They described stable overall delinquency, unusually low serious delinquency and alternatives to default for borrowers already further behind.
Together with the foreclosure comparisons, those findings supported the original article's conclusion that the market was not experiencing a foreclosure crisis. The article also argued that the data did not point toward one. That was an interpretation of the evidence presented, not a guaranteed forecast.
A Practical Way to Read Foreclosure News
You do not have to ignore foreclosure headlines. Just look beyond the increase before deciding what it means.
- Check the starting point. Is the story comparing activity with historic lows?
- Find the broader comparison. How does activity compare with normal pre-pandemic levels and housing crash conditions?
- Read the supporting evidence. What does the report say about delinquency, borrower qualifications and homeowner equity?
- Keep the reporting period in view. Do not treat an older figure or quotation as a new market update.
The Bottom Line
The original article's message was straightforward: an expected rise in foreclosures from historic lows was not the same as a foreclosure crisis. The data it presented remained below normal pre-pandemic activity and far below housing crash levels.
If a headline has you questioning a buying, selling or homeownership decision, save the article and identify the comparison behind it. Then reach out to Ed Parcaut to talk through your questions and put the mortgage information in perspective.
