Does news about the housing market have you questioning your plans to sell your house? Before you change those plans, take a step back. Perspective matters, especially when headlines compare a slower market with the unusually fast pace of the pandemic.
A market can cool without becoming balanced. Homes can take longer to sell while still moving faster than they did in more typical conditions. And fewer offers do not mean buyers have disappeared.
The key is understanding what the numbers are being compared with. A trusted real estate professional can help you look beyond the headline and put inventory, selling times and buyer demand into context.
Start With the Right Comparison
The pandemic housing market was not a normal baseline. Homes sold at a record pace, and record-low mortgage rates helped drive unusually strong buyer demand.
Comparing everything with that peak can make a cooldown sound more dramatic than it is. Looking further back gives you another way to understand the same information.
The historical comparisons below illustrate that difference. They describe the market conditions examined in the original analysis, not a prediction or a statement about conditions when you decide to sell. Use them as a guide to the questions worth asking.
More Homes for Sale Does Not Always Mean Plenty of Supply
An increase in available homes tells you that buyers have more choices than they did at the comparison point. It does not, by itself, tell you whether the market has enough supply to be considered balanced.
The inventory analysis cited from Calculated Risk made that distinction clear. Supply had increased compared with the preceding year, but it remained well short of what was considered a balanced market.
Looking across the comparison periods showed three different perspectives:
- Inventory was more than 30% above the preceding year's level.
- It was only slightly above the level from the first pandemic year.
- It remained roughly 40% below the supply available in the last normal, pre-pandemic year used in the analysis.
All three comparisons described the same supply picture. The increase was real, but so was the shortage relative to the pre-pandemic benchmark.
What This Means for a Seller
When inventory is low, limited choices can help support demand for your house. There simply are not enough homes available for sale to meet that demand.
That is why a rising inventory headline needs context. In the conditions described above, supply had grown without bringing the market into balance, supporting the original article's conclusion that the cooldown still favored sellers.
Before deciding what an inventory increase means for your plans, ask your real estate professional: How does available supply compare with both the recent low and more typical conditions?
Slower Sales Can Still Be Faster Than Normal
The same perspective applies to the time it takes a home to sell. A longer wait than during the pandemic does not necessarily mean a long wait by historical standards.
The original analysis used data from the National Association of Realtors' Realtors' Confidence Index to show that distinction. Average days on the market were higher before the pandemic than during it.
As homes sold at a record pace during the pandemic, the average time on the market decreased. During the subsequent cooldown examined in the article, that average began ticking up slightly.
Even with that increase, homes were still selling much faster than the pre-pandemic norm. Low inventory was a major reason the average remained below those earlier levels.
Set Expectations Beyond the Fastest Period
If your expectations come from the fastest stretch of the pandemic market, any additional waiting can feel disappointing. The broader comparison offers a more useful frame: slower than a record pace can still be relatively fast.
Pricing also belongs in this conversation. As the original article noted, a home priced appropriately could still go under contract quickly. That is a possibility, not a promise about your particular sale.
Ask your real estate professional to explain the expected selling timeline and the comparison behind it. “Slower than what?” is a simple question that can make an otherwise discouraging headline more useful.
Fewer Offers Do Not Mean Demand Has Disappeared
Buyer demand is another area where the pandemic can create unrealistic expectations. Receiving three to five offers, as sellers did during that period, was not the normal benchmark described in the original analysis.
NAR data covering the pre-pandemic period through the cooldown showed that homes sold before the pandemic typically received roughly two to two and a half offers on average.
During the pandemic, the average number of offers rose sharply as record-low mortgage rates drove stronger demand. As mortgage rates rose during the cooldown, buyer demand softened and offer counts began returning toward pre-pandemic levels.
The important distinction is between demand that has moderated and demand that has disappeared. The analysis showed buyers were still participating, even though the competition had eased from its pandemic peak.
Keep Pricing Part of the Discussion
The original takeaway was that buyers remained available and pricing at market value mattered to a seller's ability to sell. It should not be read as a guarantee that any particular house will sell.
Rather than expecting pandemic-style competition, ask what the offer activity described by your professional means for your pricing expectations. Keep the discussion focused on the market you will actually enter, not the busiest period you remember.
Turn Perspective Into a Selling Plan
You do not need to ignore housing news. You need a way to interpret it. Before changing your plans, bring these questions to a trusted real estate professional:
- Does higher inventory mean balanced supply, or simply more supply than before?
- Are selling times longer than normal, or only longer than the pandemic's record pace?
- Has buyer demand disappeared, or has offer activity moved toward more typical levels?
- What pricing expectations fit the conditions being discussed?
Your practical next step is to write down your preferred moving timeline and the questions that are making you hesitate. Review them with your real estate professional, and reach out to Ed Parcaut to discuss the mortgage questions connected with your next move.
