If you’re thinking about buying a home, two questions are probably on your mind: What happens next with home prices, and when will mortgage rates come down?
Behind both questions is a more personal one: Should you make your move or wait?
There is no easy answer, especially when you’re trying to anticipate mortgage rates. The practical approach is to use the latest information available, understand what experts are actually forecasting, and weigh your options with a trusted professional.
Start by separating the outlook for home prices from the outlook for mortgage rates. Then bring both back to the decision that matters to you: whether you’re ready, willing, and able to afford a home.
What Do Experts Expect From Home Prices?
One source for home price forecasts is Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey. It gathers input from more than one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
The survey release cited in the original article projected that home prices would continue rising throughout its five-year forecast period. The expected percentage of appreciation varied from year to year, but the overall direction was up, not down, at a more normal pace.
That was a forecast for the period covered by that release, not a standing prediction for the next five years whenever you read this. For a buying decision, ask your real estate advisor to review the latest available expectations with you.
The useful distinction is between the direction of prices and the pace of growth. The cited survey expected continued appreciation, but it did not project the same percentage increase every year.
What That Outlook Means if You Buy
Under the outlook described in that survey, buying a home could put you in a position to benefit from future appreciation. If the expected price growth occurs, your home would likely gain value, helping you build equity in the years ahead.
Keep the conditional part of that statement in view. The original outlook described what experts expected, not a guaranteed result for your purchase.
Rather than treating projected appreciation as a reason to rush, use it as one part of the conversation. Ask your advisor to explain the forecast and how it should inform the options you’re considering.
What That Outlook Means if You Wait
The other side of the same forecast is straightforward: If you wait and prices continue climbing, a home could cost more later.
That does not turn waiting into an automatically wrong decision. It means the possibility of higher prices belongs in your comparison, alongside your expectations for mortgage rates.
Before choosing to wait, ask yourself what you’re waiting for. Is it a lower mortgage rate, a lower home price, or a point when you feel ready and able to afford the purchase? Be clear about the change you want before making it the basis of your plan.
When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
This is the difficult timing question. As the original article explains, several factors can influence mortgage rates, and their direction depends on how those factors develop.
Odeta Kushi, identified in the original article as Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explained:
“Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can influence the direction of mortgage rates. Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates.”
The key word is can. Those conditions may influence rates, but the explanation does not provide a certain date for a decline.
Why Rate Expectations Can Change
The original article described experts as optimistic that mortgage rates would decline within the period they were discussing. It also acknowledged that changing economic indicators would continue to affect that outlook.
That optimism should stay connected to its original context rather than be presented as a fresh prediction whenever someone reads this article.
The CNET article cited in the original made the same broader point: Mortgage rates could decline, but housing market predictions change regularly in response to economic data, geopolitical events, and other developments.
A forecast for lower rates is an expectation, not an appointment on the calendar. When you review rate expectations, ask what information supports them and what developments might change the outlook.
How to Weigh Buying Against Waiting
You do not have to turn an uncertain forecast into a certain answer. Instead, use the information to have a focused conversation about your options.
If you’re ready, willing, and able to afford a home, the original article’s guidance is practical: Partner with a trusted real estate advisor and decide what is right for you.
Use these questions to organize that discussion:
- What do the latest home price forecasts say? Review the expected direction, pace of appreciation, and period covered.
- What is behind the mortgage rate outlook? Ask how inflation, labor data, economic conditions, and geopolitical developments factor into expectations.
- What if prices keep rising while I wait? Consider that possibility rather than focusing only on a hoped-for rate decline.
- Am I ready and able to afford the purchase? Keep your own situation at the center of the decision.
Your Next Step
Home price forecasts and mortgage rate expectations are useful information, but neither removes the need to weigh your options carefully. Review what experts are saying without turning their projections into promises.
Write down what you can afford, what you want from your move, and what would make you choose to wait. Then connect with a trusted real estate agent to review the latest available price information, and reach out to Ed Parcaut to discuss your mortgage questions and next steps.
