A presidential election can leave you wondering what comes next, especially if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home. Should you move forward, or wait until the uncertainty settles?
Those questions are reasonable. But uncertainty alone isn’t a reason to put your plans on hold. Historically, presidential elections have typically had only a small, temporary impact on the housing market.
The most useful approach is to look at home sales, home prices and mortgage rates separately. Each tells a different part of the story. Then you can weigh those patterns against your own reasons for making a move.
The Big Picture: Usually a Limited Impact
Election discussions can make a housing decision feel more complicated than it needs to be. The historical picture is less dramatic: elections generally haven’t changed the housing market as much as buyers and sellers sometimes fear.
As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
That doesn’t mean elections have no effect. Some buyers pause, and sales activity can soften briefly. But the historical patterns described below suggest that those effects are usually limited rather than lasting.
A presidential election, by itself, doesn’t have to decide whether you buy or sell. History offers context, not a promise about what will happen next.
Home Sales: A Small Slowdown, Then a Rebound
In the period leading into a presidential election, from October to November, home sales typically slow slightly. Some consumers prefer to wait until the election is over before making a purchase decision.
The important distinction is that this slowdown has generally been small and temporary. Historically, sales have bounced back and continued to rise the following year.
The historical analysis cited in the original article used data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Association of Realtors. Across the 11 presidential elections examined, home sales increased the following year after nine of them. That post-election pattern had been consistent across the later decades covered by the analysis.
Those figures describe the historical sample, not a continuously updated count or a forecast for the next election.
What This Means for Your Plans
If you’re buying, separate your desire to wait from your reasons for buying. Are you waiting because your plans aren’t ready, or simply because an election is approaching?
If you’re selling, keep a brief slowdown in perspective. A temporary pause in buyer decisions is not the same thing as a lasting change in the direction of home sales.
In either case, the practical question is whether waiting serves your needs. The election calendar alone doesn’t answer that.
Home Prices: Elections Usually Don’t Change the Trend
Do home prices typically fall during presidential election years? Not according to the historical pattern described in the original analysis.
Residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it this way:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of the election cycle. Based on that history, the existing pricing trend in a local market would generally be expected to continue unless unusual market or economic circumstances intervene.
The National Association of Realtors data cited in the original article showed that prices increased the following year after seven of the eight presidential elections examined.
The exception occurred during the height of the housing market crash. That was an unusual period, not a typical example of election-year housing conditions.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the historical record doesn’t support assuming that an election will bring lower home prices. If your plan depends on an election-related price drop, reconsider that assumption.
For sellers, an election is not, by itself, a reason to assume your home’s value will change direction. Start with the pricing trend in your local market rather than a prediction about the election’s effect.
Keep the question local: What is happening with prices where you want to buy or sell? That is the trend to discuss, rather than treating the election as an automatic turning point.
Mortgage Rates: A Historical Pattern, Not a Guarantee
Mortgage rates deserve attention because they affect your monthly payment when you finance a home. It’s understandable to wonder whether waiting until after an election could help.
Freddie Mac data cited in the original article examined 11 presidential election years. In eight of those years, mortgage rates decreased between July and November.
That is a historical observation, not a commitment that rates will fall during every election cycle. It also doesn’t establish that the election itself caused those decreases.
If rates ease, that can be helpful for purchasing power. But a buying plan should not depend on an expected decline happening on a particular schedule.
Turn the Rate Question Into a Payment Conversation
Instead of asking only, “Will rates fall after the election?” ask, “What payment am I comfortable with, and how would different rate scenarios affect my plans?”
That keeps the conversation focused on your decision. You can consider the historical pattern without treating it as a prediction or a promise.
How to Use This Information
The takeaway is straightforward: presidential elections have usually had a minimal effect on housing, and the market has historically shown resilience through election cycles. For most buyers and sellers, elections haven’t had a major impact on their plans.
Before deciding to wait, work through these questions:
- What is my main reason for buying or selling?
- Would waiting support that goal, apart from easing election-related uncertainty?
- What pricing trend is already happening in my local market?
- If I’m financing a purchase, what monthly payment feels manageable?
- Am I basing my decision on my circumstances or an expected election outcome?
You don’t need to ignore uncertainty. You just don’t have to let it make the decision for you.
Your next step is to write down your goals, preferred timeline and payment questions. Then reach out to Ed Parcaut to talk through your mortgage options and how they fit your homeownership plans.
