Will home prices fall? If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or doing both, that question matters. You want to make a smart move without paying more than necessary or basing your plans on an assumption that does not hold up.
The original expert outlook behind this article pointed to continued price increases, not declines. Its central explanation was straightforward: there were more buyers than homes available for sale.
But those forecasts described a particular period. They should not be presented as a standing prediction about what happens next. The useful takeaway is how to understand the reasoning, distinguish slower growth from falling prices, and apply that distinction to your own plans.
What Was Happening With Home Prices?
The original article reported that home prices had recorded 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. That was a historical measure of price growth, not a claim that the same streak continues indefinitely.
It also cited CoreLogic, which reported that annual price appreciation averaged 15%, up from 6% in the preceding year. Those figures described two specific historical reporting periods. They are useful context for understanding the original discussion, not a forecast for your next purchase.
The explanation offered for those increases was an imbalance between supply and demand. More buyers wanted homes than there were homes for sale.
With inventory low and buyer demand strong, available homes were in high demand. The original outlook expected that imbalance to keep upward pressure on prices.
Why Supply and Demand Mattered to the Forecast
The experts cited in the original article did not expect a price decline because they expected the shortage of homes relative to buyer demand to continue.
That reasoning matters more than a headline suggesting prices must always rise. The outlook rested on specific conditions: strong demand and limited supply.
First American explained that price growth was expected to moderate from its rapid pace, while strong homebuyer demand and historically tight inventory would likely keep appreciation positive over the forecast period.
In plain English, the expectation was that prices would keep increasing, but not as quickly.
When reviewing that outlook, keep the forecast and its explanation together. It was not simply a prediction of higher prices. It was a prediction tied to the relationship between buyers looking for homes and the homes available to them.
Slower Price Growth Is Not the Same as Falling Prices
This is the most important distinction in the original article.
Appreciation means prices are increasing. Depreciation means prices are decreasing. More moderate appreciation means prices are still rising, just at a slower pace.
The forecasts referenced in the original article called for continued appreciation throughout their forecast period. Although the projected growth was more moderate, the article described the expected gains as strong.
None of the experts included in that original forecast discussion projected depreciation. That statement applies to the forecasts the article referenced. It should not be read as a claim that every expert always expects prices to increase.
If you are waiting for a less expensive home, this distinction deserves your attention. A forecast calling for slower price growth is not the same as a forecast calling for lower purchase prices.
What This Means if You Are Selling
The original article noted that strong appreciation over the preceding two years had benefited homeowners’ property values.
For someone thinking about selling, that was encouraging. But the article also emphasized that sellers needed to consider what came next, especially if they planned to buy another home.
If you are selling and buying, do not stop your planning at the expected sale price of your current property. Put your next purchase into the same conversation.
The question is not simply, “What could I sell for?” It is also, “What would my next home purchase look like?” The original advice was to consider both sides rather than treating the sale as a separate decision.
For Homeowners Planning to Move Up
The original article focused especially on homeowners selling to move up. Its recommendation was not to wait for falling prices when the cited forecasts instead pointed toward continued increases.
That recommendation followed from the outlook presented. If prices continued to climb, purchasing before further increases could make more financial sense for someone already ready to move.
The word could matters. A forecast gives you something to consider. It does not guarantee the outcome of your particular purchase.
Why Waiting Was Described as Risky
The original article warned that rising mortgage rates and rising home prices could affect the next home purchase. Its concern was that someone might delay buying in hopes of a price decline that the cited experts did not expect.
Freddie Mac made a similar point in the commentary quoted in the original post. It described waiting for a price deal while mortgage rates might be higher as risky, and suggested buying sooner could be more advantageous under the conditions being discussed.
That was a conditional assessment, not an evergreen instruction that everyone should buy immediately.
The original post went further by saying waiting would only cost more. A more useful way to carry that warning forward is this: waiting for lower prices is a bet on what happens next, not a guaranteed money-saving strategy.
Likewise, buying sooner should not be presented as a guaranteed better outcome. Keep the original concern in view without turning a historical forecast into a promise.
Turn the Forecast Into a Practical Conversation
Instead of letting a price headline make the decision for you, use the original article’s reasoning to organize your questions:
- Does the forecast predict falling prices, or simply slower appreciation?
- What supply-and-demand conditions support that forecast?
- Am I planning only a sale, or a sale followed by another purchase?
- Am I waiting because I am not ready, or because I am assuming prices will fall?
- How would higher prices or mortgage rates affect the purchase I am considering?
You do not need to treat an expert outlook as a command to act. Use it to examine the assumptions behind your plan.
Bottom Line
The original expert outlook favored continued appreciation because buyer demand exceeded the supply of homes for sale. Its lasting lesson is that slower price growth does not mean falling prices, and waiting for a decline carries uncertainty.
As a practical next step, write down what you want from your next home and whether your plan includes selling first. Then reach out to Ed Parcaut to discuss your mortgage questions and put your next purchase into a clear, practical plan.
